The National continues to climb over Labor in the latest political poll
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she spoke to the president about Winston Peters’ intrusion. Video / Mark Mitchell
Labor has suffered a dramatic drop in support in a new political poll, but could still form a government, with Te Pāti Māori once again finding themselves in the position of kingmaker.
National climbed to 40.5%, up 9.5 points in tonight’s Newshub-Reid Research poll from the company’s last poll in February.
Labor meanwhile fell 6.1 points to 38.2%.
Suffering from the rise of National, Act lost 1.6 points to 6.4%. The Green Party also saw a slight decline, down 1.2 points to 8.4%.
Te Pāti Māori meanwhile increased its vote share by 0.5 points to 2.5%.
The numbers would give the National 51 seats and Act 8 a total of 59, just short of the 61 required to form a majority in a 120-seat House.
The Labor Party would get 48 seats and the Green Party 10, which is also not enough to return to power.
If Te Pāti Māori held Waiariki, he would get three seats and hold the office of kingmaker.
However, despite the highest national polls, he would probably not be able to form a government on these numbers, with Te Pāti Māori continuing to rule out working with the Deed Party.
This is the third major poll in a row to place Te Pāti Māori in such a position, with the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia in April and the 1News-Kantar poll in March reaching similar conclusions.
For the preferred prime minister, Jacinda Ardern saw a drop of seven points to 36.3%.
National leader Christopher Luxon meanwhile saw an increase of 6.1 points to 23.9%.
Ardern told Newshub the results reflected a “really tough time.”
Since the last such poll, there had been the Omicron epidemic, the rising cost of living and the war in Ukraine.
The prime minister told Newshub she would run again, and voters asked if they thought she should back her, just, with 50.2% saying ‘yes’ and 41.4% saying ‘no’ “.
The poll results came as Newshub also revealed that the majority of Kiwis wanted the government to do more to meet the cost of living.
When asked if they thought the government was doing enough to deal with the “cost of living crisis”, 15.2% said “yes” and 77% “no”.
Just over a quarter, 26.6%, of Labor voters said they thought the government had done enough, while 60.1% said it had not.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted April 18-27 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Recent polls have also put the National slightly above Labour, the latest in April by the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia giving the opposition a point lead.
This followed a 1News-Kantar poll in March which had National at 39% and Labor at 37%. It was National’s first time ahead of Labor since February 2020, a month before the Covid 19 pandemic tore the world apart and New Zealand was plunged into isolation.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll in April pushed National up 2.5 points to 37.8%, just 1 point ahead of Labour, which was at 36.8%, up 0.6 points.
The Greens came next with 9.4%, down three points. Act also fell, down 2.8 points to 8.4 percent.
Te Pāti Māori meanwhile jumped 3.5 points to 3.6%.
Of these figures, the Labor-Green bloc would have 58 seats, 46 for Labor and 12 for the Greens.
That would put them ahead of National and Act, which would have 57 seats, 47 for National and 10 for Act.
This poll also placed Te Pāti Māori as kingmaker. They would have five seats, which would give them the balance of power.