“The alternative is bleak,” says Dr Rachelle Binny.

“Failure to achieve these high levels of immunization would mean that we will have to continue to rely on strict border closures and restrictions to prevent thousands of deaths. This could cripple our health care system, and Maori and Pacific communities would bear the brunt of this health burden. “

The modeling provides a rough guide to the benefits of high vaccination rates at the population level, but not a detailed roadmap for reopening. This shows that, if we are to end the lockdowns, New Zealand must strive for very high immunization coverage.

It is also essential to achieve high immunization rates not only nationally, but also in specific communities, including Maori and Pasifika populations.

“The results here demonstrate the tremendous benefits of high immunization coverage in the months to come,” says Professor Hendy.

“The message from modeling is that COVID-19 will continue to disrupt our lives for some time to come, but we can minimize this disruption by making sure we all get vaccinated.

“There is no magic threshold for immunization coverage. But the higher the coverage, the fewer restrictions we will need in the years to come. Above all, we need every community to be well covered by vaccination.

“We cannot afford to leave someone behind.”