Rafael Nadal vs Cameron Norrie

Rafael Nadal is playing at an incredibly high level this season. After winning the Australian Open over Daniil Medvedev last month in an incredible comeback victory, Nadal beat Medvedev again in the Acapulco semi-finals to advance to the final.

While the match was closer than the scoreline indicated, Nadal was incredibly tight, saving all 11 break points on his serve. Moreover, he jumped on Medvedev’s second serve as the Russian was only able to earn 25% of his second serve points as he was broken three times.

In total, while Nadal won 65% of his service points, Medvedev only won 55% of the points on his serve.

Nadal is yet to drop a set this week, with wins over Denis Kudla, Stefan Kozlov and Tommy Paul, in addition to his win over Medvedev. While those first three matches weren’t against the toughest opposition, the victory over Medvedev signaled that Nadal is ready no matter who he plays against.

With the pattern of his forehand crossing over the opponent’s backhand as well as his brutally consistent depth, it’s hard to gain a foothold in matches against Nadal.

Cameron Norrie is having a spectacular week in Acapulco. In his last victory, he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4 to reach the final.

Norrie played such a smart game. He effectively moved the ball up the pitch with great depth and consistency, used his heavy forehand to set the ball high on Tsitsipas’ backhand and showed incredible anticipation as to where Tsitsipas was hitting the ball during the exchanges.

Norrie also served very well, winning 79% of his service points and only facing one break point the whole match, which he saved. Norrie, who managed to serve on 73% of first serves, placed his serves beautifully in the box and made it very difficult for Tsitsipas to get into the Briton’s service games.

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It’s a fascinating match between two in-form players. Nadal, given his pedigree and recent form, is the deserved favorite and hasn’t dropped a set to Norrie in their previous three head-to-head encounters.

Court speed works well for both players. Both players enjoy playing on slower, bouncy pitches. While Nadal has long been known for his success on these types of courts, Norrie showed what he can do not just this week but also in Indian Wells last year. Norrie beat Nikoloz Basilashvili to win the title at Indian Wells last season.

But, more because of what he showed this week than in Indian Wells, it’s hard to count him. The awkwardness of his game is never fun to contend with, but when he’s able to combine that awkwardness with pinpoint accuracy, great touch, a well-placed first serve and consistent, brutal depth, then Norrie is a nightmare to play. player.

And that’s exactly what he’s showing this week.

Yes, Norrie won’t be able to land his high forehand in a one-handed backhand against Nadal like he did against Tsitsipas, but the level of tennis he’s shown recently and his affinity for that type of court makes me believe that he can at least keep this game close.

Norrie might fade towards the end of this game, so I don’t feel comfortable with the gap. However, I see him holding his own with Nadal for a while and I think the more is the good game.

Take: More than 20.5 games (-120 at PointsBet)